From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10423/belarussian-invasion-of-ukraine-by-june-2022/

Resolves YES if this market has >= 2k volume by 00:00 on May 1st.

Resolves YES if an offer to take Twitter private led by Elon Musk succeeds before the end of 2022. (It is not necessary that Musk provide a majority of the capital.)

The Eurovision Song Contest 2022 is scheduled to occur between Tuesday, May 10th and Saturday, May 14th. Will Ukraine win?

Mar 1, 7:22pm: If Ukraine does not compete, this market resolves "No". If the contest does not take place, it resolves "N/A". If they tie for 1st, it resolves "Yes". I'll add this to the description too.

ZorbaTHut

Self-Hosted Tildes, Then Custom (Option 7)

Austin

The Motte is a nephew of Astral Codex Ten, dedicated towards being "a working discussion ground for people who may hold dramatically different beliefs", currently hosted on Reddit and led by me. It is likely moving off Reddit in the moderately near future. See https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/uaoyng/meta_like_rationalists_leaving_a/ for more context.

This is a market that resolves based on a future decision of mine. I've included all the options I'm currently considering. If I end up choosing something other than those options, I'll pick the answer that seems closest if there is a sufficiently close one, or N/A otherwise. I don't think it's possible to formalize this resolution further; you'll just have to trust me.

I encourage you to attempt to influence my decision! But you should probably do it in the above link.

I have individual markets for the success of each option, if taken. The success of those markets will likely influence the outcome of this one. Check https://manifold.markets/tag/themotte_leaving for a list (though it's annoyingly hard to list all of them.)

Okay the tag view is actually annoyingly glitchy. Here's the individual markets:

Option 1: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-staying-on
Option 2: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-staying-on-d3d4e0c5a4bf
Option 3: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to
Option 4: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to-2d8d49de84da
Option 5: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to-d418485476cd
Option 6: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to-ee34c94728f9
Option 7: https://manifold.markets/ZorbaTHut/conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to-991cae37688e

Apr 24, 2:53am: Someone on the main thread has suggested moving onto a non-Tildes codebase with plans to reimplement it later; I'm lumping that general category of idea into Option 7 (honestly I shouldn't have specified the codebase there, mea culpa.)

Apr 24, 1:21pm: More option updates: I'm broadening Option 4 into "Self-Hosted Non-Federated Site", including LessWrong and a site I am not willing to name while being linked directly from Reddit, and Option 5 into "Self-Hosted Federated Site", including Brutalinks. Yeah I know I'm playing kind of fast and loose with this, but hey, as long as nobody's making their own answers for these things, I'm gonna try to keep it together.



Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

There is some interest in breeding octopuses for intelligence, possibly as an alternative to computer-based AGI 
https://twitter.com/richardmcngo/status/1492212649941037056?lang=en-GB
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DaFG3GKsBrsAnAERR/save-humanity-breed-sapient-octopuses

This market will resolve "YES" if at any time before December 31st 11:59 PM UTC 2022, I think there is sufficient evidence that someone has recieved funding to investigate whether it is viable to selectively breed octopuses for intelligence. 
I think this funding would likely come from an EA or rationalist-adjacent funder, for example FTX, OpenPhil, Survival and Flourishing, New Science, ACX Grants, LTFF. The funding does not have to be from one of these sources. Joke funding for the purpose of winning this market will not count.

Apr 12, 2:08pm: Funding to actually do the breeding, rather than just investigate the viability will also lead to this resolving postively.

Tetraspace

This market resolves to YES if I get a positive pregnancy test before June 3rd 2022.

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