Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?

Will this market have >2k volume by May 1st?

Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?

Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2022?

Will Kane Tanaka live to be 120 years old?

Private question #1

Finland joins NATO in 2022

Will Will Smith be arrested before May 1st for slapping Chris Rock at the Oscars?

Will someone recieve funding to investigate the viability of selectively breeding octopuses for intelligence by the end of 2022?

Joe Biden will step down as president before the 2024 presidential election results.

Will I be pregnant before I turn 34?

Will Scott Alexander produce BABBY by 2031?

Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2023?

If Russia successfully invades Ukraine, will China invade Taiwan by the end of the year?

Will Ethereum merge to Proof-of-Stake by July?

Communal Game: Can the dog get the bone?

Will anyone outbid Elon musk to buy twitter and get approved by twitter's board before the poison pill expires?

Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?

Will Beeminder have a private Manifold instance for internal predictions and decisions?

Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2024?

Will Russia close its borders to prevent its citizens from leaving?

Will Michelle Obama hold a political office by Feb 1, 2024?

Mantic will airdrop crypto to early users by June 30, 2022

Will Bongbong Marcos will be elected president of the Philippines?

Conditional on The Motte moving to a new self-hosted site based on Tildes but planning to rebuild from scratch, the community will still be thriving on January 1st, 2023.

Conditional on The Motte moving to a new site owned by another group, the community will still be thriving on January 1st, 2023.

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Will Russia invade Kiev by end of 2022?

Will David Tennant be the next Doctor Who?

Will OpenAI train a 1 trillion parameter machine learning model by the end of 2023?

Will Manifold auction off the top Market(s) you see when you log in?

Conditional on The Motte moving to a new self-hosted site based on Tildes, the community will still be thriving on January 1st, 2023.

Conditional on The Motte staying on Reddit and banning Reddit-disapproved discussion, the community will still be thriving on January 1st, 2023.

Will Blake Masters win the 2022 Arizona Republican Senate nomination?

Will Manifold Markets become open-source?

Will this market have at least M$62,831 invested into it by Tau Day (June 28th)?

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?

Will Elon Musk own more than 90% of Twitter before June 1st?

Will Manifold ever be worth $1T? [% / 10]

Will a big conflict occur in the West Bank soon?

Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1?

Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Will published performance on GSM8K-test exceed 90% by 1st April 2023?

Will manifold markets add a way to view calibration histograms for users, tags, or folds?

Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic nominee?

Will the US make daylight savings time permanent in 2023?

If Pete Buttigieg becomes the Democratic nominee, will he win the 2024 election?

Will Elon Musk have owned more than 10% of Twitter's stock at any time before June 1st?

Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?

Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?

Will Finland join NATO before 2024?

8. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict in 2022?

Will Elon Musk take Twitter private by Aug 1 2022?

Will there be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022?

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?

Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?

A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022

Will the Academy strip Will Smith of his Best Actor Oscar by May 1st for slapping Chris Rock?

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of July, 2022

Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?

Will Manifold's comments still be ordered newest-first by market close?

Will Noam Chomsky live longer than Bertrand Russell? (Russell died at 98)

Will the closing price of the MOEX Russia Index be above $3,000 USD on April 29th?

Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?

Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?

Will the USA have a female president in 2022?

Will Ukraine officially recognize Crimea as Russian before June 2022?

Will Trump be allowed back on Twitter before the end of the year?

Will Reuters be using Türkiye to refer to Turkey by the end of April?

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of the State of Mississippi Department of Health in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, thereby colloquially, "Overturning Roe v. Wade," in the United States?

Conditional on making a public Tinder profile by April 1st, will I go on a second date with somebody I met on Tinder by Jan 1st 2023?

Will 2022 will be warmer than 2021?

The Ukrainian war will be done by June 2022.

Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?

Will a machine learning model score above 50.0% on the MATH dataset before 2025?

Will the Supreme Court uphold the Ninth Circuit's judgment that California Proposition 12 doesn't violate the Commerce Clause?

Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2022?

Will J.D. Vance win the Ohio GOP Senate primary?

Will I agree that Manifold's comments should be free?

Will blockchain tech find a killer app in 2023?

Will I get a positive Cue result for COVID in the next month?

Will Starship reach orbit by the end of 2022?

Will Kharkiv fall to Russia during 2022?

Will Kyiv fall before 2023?

Will I become significantly more mellow by the end of the year?